Global Capacity Pricing Contents
GLOBAL CAPACITY PRICING
Executive Summary
Methodology
- Transatlantic
- Route Overview
- New York – London Route
- Ashburn – Paris Route
- Brazil – Africa Route
- Transatlantic Pricing
- Transatlantic Regional Outlook
- Transpacific
- Route Overview
- Los Angeles – Tokyo Route
- Los Angeles – Sydney Route
- US Pacific Northwest – Sydney Route
- Los Angeles – Hong Kong Route
- Los Angeles – Hawaii Route
- Hawaii – Sydney Route
- Transpacific Pricing
- Transatlantic Regional Outlook
- Americas
- Route Overview
- Miami – Fortaleza Route
- New York – Sao Paulo Route
- Brazil – Africa Route
- Americas Pricing
- Americas Regional Outlook
- Intra-Asia
- Route Overview
- Tokyo – Singapore Route
- Singapore – Mumbai Route
- Intra-Asia Pricing
- Intra-Asia Regional Outlook
- EMEA to Asia
- Route Overview
- EMEA to Asia Pricing
- EMEA to Asia Regional Outlook
- Pricing Benchmarks
- Transatlantic Region
- Transpacific Region
- Americas Region
- Intra-Asia Region
- EMEA to Asia Region
Pricing Outlook
Works Cited
Appendix – Capacity Pricing Tables
Executive Summary
It all starts in the Atlantic. Transatlantic routes have set trends throughout the history of the submarine fiber industry and will continue to do so in the future. The New York – London route is the most commercially competitive in the world and will continue to be so through the foreseeable future.
The Transatlantic will be greatly impacted by the market shift from connecting cities to connecting data centers. As Content Providers like Amazon, Facebook, Google and Microsoft continue to expand their infrastructure and drive cable development, continue to expect new cables that do not follow the more traditional routes.
Like the Transatlantic routes, Transpacific routes will be shaped by the market shifting towards interconnection of data centers instead of simply connecting population centers. Cloud service providers are developing infrastructure in a major way all throughout East Asia and the Pacific. Expect new cables to connect to critical trade and technology hubs that will not necessarily adhere to traditional cable routes.
As Content Providers are driving several new Transatlantic and Transpacific cables, the possibility of these cable owners selling off their excess capacity and negatively impacting the market needs to be considered.
Capacity pricing for routes in the Americas region will depend heavily on economic health in South America. While these routes may never see the same level of demand as the Transatlantic and Transpacific, they are becoming increasingly important to Content Provider infrastructure plans and global economic development.
Intra-Asia routes will continue to provide important paths between Tokyo, Singapore and Mumbai. While the Tokyo – Singapore route should remain relatively unchanged in the future, the Singapore – Mumbai has the most potential for growth. As new cables and telecoms development turn towards India’s growing technology sector, this region is prime for growth.
EMEA to Asia routes have been well established for decades and carry important traffic between Europe and Asia. However, they are high latency and expensive to operate. Threats to the health of this route will be planned systems that bypass the Suez Canal to avoid sustained economic and political instability in the Middle East and Arctic routes that connect Europe to Asia via much shorter pathways. Should these alternatives become truly competitive, these routes will be negatively affected.
SubTel Forum Analytics has developed a new Pricing Benchmark model to help identify healthy cable routes. This model considers several cost and pricing factors to provide a quick reference score to help the industry better understand the economic health of submarine cable systems from a route and regional perspective.
Overall, there seems to be a healthy global market, but a lot depends on what Content Providers will do and how cost-effective system upgrades and new cables can be implemented.
Methodology
This edition of the Submarine Telecoms Market Sector Report was authored by the analysts at SubTel Forum Analytics, a Division of Submarine Telecoms Forum, Inc. It provides submarine cable system analysis for SubTel Forum’s Submarine Cable Almanac, Cable Map, Industry Report and Industry Newsfeed. For the Capacity Pricing edition, SubTel Forum Analytics utilizes both interviews with industry experts and its proprietary Submarine Cable Database. The database tracks some 400+ current and planned domestic and international cable systems, including project information suitable for querying by owner, year, project, region, system length, capacity, landing points, installers, etc.
The Submarine Cable Database is purpose-built by SubTel Forum Analytics’ database administration team, which is powered by SQL and retained on a Microsoft Azure platform. Data is collected from the public domain and validated through interviews with industry experts in order to provide the most accurate, comprehensive and centralized source of information in the industry. At present, SubTel Forum Analytics’ Submarine Cable Database chronicles the work of some 18 financiers, 477 cable owners, 22 system suppliers, 12 upgraders, 15 system surveyors and 25 system installers. In addition, it manages data for some 400+ projects, across seven regions and 840+ landing points.
To accomplish this report, SubTel Forum Analytics conducted continuous data gathering throughout the year. Data assimilation and consolidation in its Submarine Cable Database was accomplished in parallel with data gathering efforts. Trending is accomplished using known data with linear growth estimates for up to three following years.
SubTel Forum Analytics collected and analyzed data derived from a variety of public, commercial and scientific sources to best analyze and project market conditions. While every care is taken in preparing this report, these are our best estimates based on information provided and discussed in this industry.
Benchmarking
SubTel Forum Analytics has introduced the Pricing Benchmark – a numerical grading system calculated from a variety of data points to help consumers better understand the health of submarine cable systems from a route and regional perspective. The benchmark grading system will also provide decision makers the tools to help support their business plans. The Pricing Benchmark is a numerical grade calculated on various factors including 100G circuit pricing, cable construction/installation cost, and the number of available wavelengths for sale on a cable system. This model does not consider depreciation and is intended as a rough estimate.
This Pricing Benchmark assumes the Annual Costs as the total system cost divided by the standard 25-year expected life span of a cable system, assumes Available Wavelengths as the total capacity of all systems on the route divided by 100G wavelengths, assumes Lit Wavelengths as the average lit capacity percentage for the region and assumes the wholesale pricing of 100G wavelengths is the median price for a given route to calculate Sales.
List of Tables
Table 1 – Transatlantic Route List
Table 2 – In Service New York-London Submarine Cables
Table 3 – Planned New York-London Submarine Cables
Table 4 – In Service Ashburn-Paris Cables
Table 5 – Planned Ashburn-Paris Cables
Table 6 – In Service Brazil-Africa Cables
Table 7 – Planned Brazil-Africa Cables
Table 8 – Transpacific Route List
Table 9 – In Service Los Angeles-Tokyo Cables
Table 10 – In Service Los Angeles-Sydney Cables
Table 11 – Planned Los Angeles-Sydney Cables
Table 12 – In Service US Pacific Northwest-Sydney Cables
Table 13 – In Service Los Angeles-Hong Kong Cables
Table 14 – Planned Los Angeles-Hong Kong Cables
Table 15 – In Service Los Angeles-Hawaii Cables
Table 16 – In Service Hawaii-Sydney Cables
Table 17 – Americas Route List
Table 18 – In Service Miami-Fortaleza Cables
Table 19 – In Service New York-Brazil Cables
Table 20 – Planned New York-Brazil Cables
Table 21 – Intra-Asia Route List
Table 22 – In Service Tokyo-Singapore Cables
Table 23 – Planned Tokyo-Singapore Cables
Table 24 – In Service Singapore-Mumbai Cables
Table 25 – EMEA to Asia Route List
Table 26 – In Service Europe-Asia Cables
Table 27 – Transatlantic Pricing Benchmark
Table 28 – Transpacific Pricing Benchmark
Table 29 – Americas Pricing Benchmark
Table 30 – Intra-Asia Pricing Benchmark
Table 31 – EMEA to Asia Pricing Benchmark
Table 32 – Transatlantic 10G Monthly Lease Pricing
Table 33 – Transatlantic 100G Monthly Lease Pricing
Table 34 – Transatlantic 100G IRU Pricing
Table 35 – Transpacific 10G Monthly Lease Pricing
Table 36 – Transpacific 100G Monthly Lease Pricing
Table 37 – Transpacific 100G IRU Pricing
Table 38 – Americas 10G Monthly Lease Pricing
Table 39 – Americas 100G Monthly Lease Pricing
Table 40 – Americas 100G IRU Pricing
Table 41 – Intra-Asia 10G Monthly Lease Pricing
Table 42 – Intra-Asia 100G Monthly Lease Pricing
Table 43 – Intra-Asia 100G IRU Pricing
Table 44 – EMEA to Asia 10G Monthly Lease Pricing
Table 45 – EMEA to Asia 100G Monthly Lease Pricing
Table 46 – EMEA to Asia 100G IRU Pricing
