THE ‘WET WAR’: Could Submarine Cable Security Concerns Threaten Global Stability?

 

 

JOHN TIBBLES, Senior position at Global Telecommunication

Introduction

Subsea cables have dominated news headlines, not just for their role in global connectivity but increasingly as strategic assets in geopolitical conflicts. Originally envisioned to unite societies, these vital infrastructures now find themselves at the heart of global tensions.

A Historical Perspective

Over the last 30 years, submarine cables evolved from being primarily telecom networks to critical digital infrastructure. Previously, their challenges were regulatory and logistical, but today they face serious security and political concerns. Historically, governments were involved in subsea cables for military and security reasons, but the current climate has escalated these concerns into major geopolitical conflicts.

The Rise of the Internet and Big Tech’s Role

With the advent of high-speed internet, tech giants like Google and Meta have shifted cable ownership from telecom providers to private corporations. These companies now dominate global data transfer, intensifying governmental scrutiny. The US, in particular, has leveraged its influence to maintain dominance over subsea networks, while other nations, such as China, seek alternative routes.

Digital Politics and State Intervention

Governments worldwide now view submarine cables as national security concerns. The US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has outlined policies to maintain American control over subsea infrastructure, restricting access to countries deemed adversarial, particularly China. The European Union and other major players are also taking steps to secure their digital sovereignty.

The United Nations has responded by drafting the Global Digital Compact (GDC) to promote secure subsea infrastructure yet concerns remain over manufacturing transparency and network vulnerabilities. Meanwhile, countries like France and Italy are taking strategic steps to maintain domestic control over their subsea networks.

A Second Digital Divide These geopolitical struggles risk creating a new “digital divide” between nations aligned with US-led internet infrastructure and those leaning towards China’s networks. The struggle could result in two separate global internet ecosystems, limiting connectivity for billions. This divide is further complicated by the rapid rise of AI, which will demand even greater data transfer capacity.

Conclusion

Governments naturally seek to protect national security, but the fragmentation of global subsea networks could lead to catastrophic consequences. The increasing division between competing internet infrastructures could disrupt global communication and economic stability. As tensions mount, the world may be entering a new era—a ‘Wet War’—where control over submarine cables could dictate global power dynamics. Ultimately, a cooperative approach may be the only way to avoid widespread digital fragmentation and economic disruption.

To read the complete article, check out Issue 140 of the Sub Tel Forum Magazine here

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